Online Business: Intro

"I would rather be a failed entrepreneur than someone who never tried. Because even a failed entrepreneur has the skill set to make it on their own." 

— Naval Ravikant

Introduction:

People are starting to lose faith in the transactional nature of systemized institutions. 

Go to school & get good grades, they said. Stay grounded in reality & focus on getting the highest-paying job, they said. Work till you're 60, so you can sustain yourself for the little time you have left, they said. 

We traded 12+ years of our time & attention to have our worth determined by alphabetic letters. The letters evolve into a piece of paper, which is equally meaningless & only has worth because we assign it value, but somehow, it dictates our value in society. Then, we finally hit the mountain peak & we're rewarded with money, something tangible to forget our dreams. All this to climb the socioeconomic ladder & flex our lifestyle to people who never cared about us in the first place (society). 

Escape the trap while you can... because soon, you won't be able to.

The Four Turnings:

The universe is comprised of cyclical patterns. 

At a macroscale, the Earth orbits the sun, & at a microscale, we have our four seasons. 

I'm sure you've heard the quote, "History repeats itself." Similar to the four seasons in climatography, there are "4 turnings" in history. You see, history repeats itself in blocks of approximately 22 years called "turnings." 

This concept was popularized by Neil Howe & William Strauss in their book "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy."

Here are the four turnings:

1. The HIGH: An era when institutions are strong & individualism is weak. Society knows where it needs to go as a collective whole.

   Most recent: Post WW2 American high 1946-1963

2. The AWAKENING: The stage when institutions are attacked in the name of personal & spiritual autonomy. People become tired of social discipline.

   Most recent: Consciousness revolution 1960s to 1980s (Vietnam war protests)

3. The UNRAVELING: Institutions are weak & distrusted, while individualism is strong & flourishing. Most recent: 1980s to 2008. 

4. The CRISIS: Institutional life is torn down & rebuilt in response to a sizeable existential threat. These are the new founding moments.

   Current Prediction: 2008 Crisis to 2030.

   Decentralization will overtake centralization & Institutions. Our politics, economics, & needs regarding public infrastructure will all change.

Business & entrepreneurship are high-stake games of risk management. Before you can understand the principles behind a successful online business, you have to understand where we are on the timeline & how this impacts certain industries & opportunities.

Remember: where attention goes, money flows. 

Bezos Advice:

"The Lindy Effect" states that the longer an idea has been around, the more likely it is to be around in the future, meaning that ideas age in reverse. 

Jeff Bezos explained this concept expertly during one of his interviews:

"I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years? And that is an interesting question. It's a very common one. But I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years? And the second question is actually the more important of the two — because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time."

Evergreen Skills vs Technical Skills:

Concepts like AI, blockchain technology, & quantum computing are taking the world by storm & everyone is focusing their attention on these domains. 

However, based on "The Lindy Effect," we know that these things have not yet stood the test of time, so investing all our attention in these domains could be catastrophic for our success. 

When we're starting off & building our foundations, we don't want volatile technical skills. We want time-tested, evergreen skills.

Instead, we should learn the principles behind psychology, human nature, storytelling, & persuasive communication. No matter how technologically advanced we get, commerce will not survive without sales & marketing. They've stood the test of time & proven to be the foundational skill set for the most successful entrepreneurs of all time. 

Note: You can skill-stack technical knowledge on top of marketing & sales, but you'll never go wrong by learning the evergreen skills first. 

Application:

During the "Crisis" phase, attention flows towards decentralization & autonomy from institutions. Micro-education businesses will emerge & they will challenge the authority of the traditional education system by leveraging code & content. This is how we can use online business to monetize our interests & leave an impact on the world.

The Fundamental Principle of Commerce: 

Strategically offer value in the marketplace & prospects will reciprocate financially.

Throughout the course of your life, you've solved countless problems for yourself. To start an online business, all you have to do is answer three questions:

1. What's the most significant problem you've overcome- the one you're most passionate about?

2. How many other people are dealing with this problem & how bad is it?

3. Can you create a step-by-step solution for your "target market" & deliver it digitally?

After you've managed to answer those three questions, you need to figure out how to captivate the attention of your target avatar. 

You can do this on any platform that has short-form functionality. This is where sales & marketing knowledge comes into play. If you can generate attention & educate your prospects through your content, you'll build an audience inevitably. 

Once you've aggregated an audience through short-form media, the next step is to start publishing medium & long-form content that bridges the knowledge gap between you & your audience. 

Alex Hormozi has a saying that goes along the lines of "If your audience knows everything you know about the problem you're trying to solve, they should buy from you."

At this stage, you have an audience that trusts you & is ready to buy from you. You also have a marketing funnel. All you have to do is create & package your solution in a way that is easy for you to deliver while simultaneously being easy for your customers to consume & apply. 

How Do Brands Monetize Attention?

Brands use social media to gain attention, but the attention is converted to currency using long & medium-form content. Brands are beginning to focus on building personal relationships through private cohorts, sales calls, newsletters, etc. All you have to do is replicate this model. 

Closing:

This is obviously an oversimplification of online business, but I think too many people obsess over the details & never get started in the first place. Let’s take the leap of faith & bet on ourselves. It will ultimately pay off.